Challenge Day 2

After abandoning the backing system after one race – as it provided an early sign of things to come – I’ve reverted to the default system, with tweaks

A bit of Exchange Poker sees the bank up to  £167.21, so today’s target is £183.93. The lay system produced two losers out of two yesterday (first one was “no bet” as above the maximum price), so I may well introduce that to the day’s betting.

Anyway, today’s selections are…
3:30 Catterick – Strawberry Patch – Win/Place
4:00 Catterick – Sir Orpen – Place
4:20 Lingfield – Katiypour – Win
4:30 Catterick – Incursion – Win

Lays for the day (have to be at 3/1 or less to qualify)
2:10 Leicester – Inquisitress
3:50 Lingfield – Flying Encore
5:10 Leicester – Dubai Twilight

Also going to be keeping an eye on some nice priced runners…might back ‘em for a place, but no more…
1:50 Lingfield – Bring It On Home (VERY nice price)
2:10 Leicester – Fashion Statement
4:40 Leicester – El Dececy
5:10 Leicester – Al Tharib

Have a fun and profitable day!

New Challenge – Day 1

OK, so the system tests have been working out very well. The laying system needs work, but the backing system is ready to go, I think.

So, a new (small) challenge – details on the “About” page – begins today.

The target is 10% profit, and the bets are…

2:30 Newcastle – Love Dubai – Win
2:50 Warwick – Thabaat – Win
3:50 Warwick – Alambic – Win

Been playing with the original system a bit – and I’ll be following (but not backing) these:-

4:30 Warwick – Red Romeo (Place), Secret Liason (Win)
5:10 Bath – High Ridge (Each Way)

Bank: £136.98
Target: £13.70 profit

Systems Update

Well, been a few days since I’ve posted – but I have been testing the systems (still on paper) to see how it goes. The lay system is going well, but is not profitable thanks to some slightly larger price lays coming home. So, there is now a 3/1 bar on that system. It had started out with a massive odds on choice… Remember, the lay system has no staking plan at the moment – just a 10% profit target on each bet, with a maximum of three lays per day.

The results of that system so far are as follows…(all results at SP)

Starting bank: £100

28th August – 4:35 Epsom – Enforcer – 5/6 – Lost – +£10
28th August – 4:45 Ripon – Country Escape – 7/4 – Lost – +£10
28th August – 4:55 Warwick – Primondo – 2/1 – Won – -£20
29th August – 2:50 Redcar – Winning Spirit – 15/8 – Lost – +£10
29th August – 3:30 Sedgefield – Rich Song – 6/1 – Lost – +£10
29th August – 4:20 Redcar – Princess Ileana – 13/8 – Lost – +£10
30th August – 2:20 Lingfield – Auction Oasis – 7/1 – Won – -£65
30th August – 4:10 Wolverhampton – Hunters Glen – 7/4 – Lost – +£13.00
30th August – 4:30 Leicester – Beinheureux – 5/1 – Lost – +£13.00
31st August – 3:10 Redcar – Danzig River – 7/1 – Lost – +£9.10
31st August – 5:15 Redcar – Ayam Jantan – 7/1 – Lost – +£9.10
31st August – 5:20 Sandown – Ruse – Non Runner
1st September – 3:25 Chepstow – Jackie Kiely – 9/2 – Won – -£40.95
1st September – 4:05 Haydock – Mezuzah – 11/4 – Lost – +£10.92
1st September – 4:20 Kempton – Lefonic – 13/2 – Lost – +£10.92

Current bank: £86.45 – Or a £13.55 loss. The 3/1 bar would have excluded a couple of wins, but also the two major losses of £65 and £40.95. So, I’d estimate that with the bar in place, the bank would have been up by about 50%.

The backing system is going very well. The basic thing here, is that you only target 10% profit a day, but you try to make it on one horse. If you don’t make it on horse 1, you try to make 10% plus your outlay on horse 1, on horse 2. Same goes for horse 3. If any horse wins, you’ve made your profit – and you stop. I may modify this staking plan somewhat, as the outlays are kind of large for what are (based on my ratings) the three “certs” of the day. And most of the time only one of the three has won on each day – so it kind of makes me worried that there will be a fair few days when all three don’t make it. There were also some minor calculation issues on some days, so some strange monetary values came out. And it seems to be making a shade over 10% per day…which is incorrect.
Anyway, the backing system shows the following:-

Starting bank: £100
28th August – 2:15 Epsom – Loch Tay – Evs – Lost – -£9.26
28th August – 2:30 Chepstow – Snake’s Head – 5/1 – Lost – -£15.29
28th August – 4:20 Warwick – Beverley Hill Billy – 6/4 – Won -+£29.27

29th August – 2:30 Sedgefield – First Cry – 4/7 – Won – +£14.42
29th August – 3:00 Sedgefield – College City – No Bet Required
29th August – 3:50 Ripon – Lafontaine Blue – No Bet Required

30th August – 2:10 Wolverhampton – Worldly – 1/4 – Won – +£29.79
30th August – 3:40 Wolverhampton – Warsaw Pact – No Bet Required
30th August – 4:00 Leicester – Shumookh – No Bet Required

31st August – 2:10 Redcar – So Sweet – 8/13 – Won – +£19.46
31st August – 2:30 Muss’burgh – Dancing Granny – No Bet Required
31st August – 3:20 Salisbury – Fretwork – No Bet Required

1st September – 2:10 Kempton – Monzante – 5/4 – Won – +£15.16
1st September – 2:20 Chepstow – Aussie Cricket – No Bet Required
1st September – 2:30 Haydock – Manhasset Indian – No Bet Required

Current bank: £183.55 – Up £83.55 in 5 days.

The calculations for the staking plan for the backing system are all over the place, so I need to work on those. The bets aren’t intended to be so large, but they need to be to cover the 10% profit target at these short odds. I’ll work on this some more, and may extend the system to 6 horses, but not have any carryover of liabilities from the previous race – as that’s where it gets expensive.

September 2nd’s picks are…for the laying system…

2:05 Kempton – Stotsfold
3:00 Stratford – Burren Moonshine
5:15 Stratford – Waterspray

For the backing system…

3:30 Stratford – Is It Me
3:50 Haydock – Striving Storm
4:00 Thirsk – Arch of Titus

All the best y’all! I’ll be starting a small challenge very soon.

System Test Day 2

Testing the new systems…

Backs
Backing system current paper bank: £133.98
Backs for the day, in order of race time:-

2:30 Sedgefield – First Cry (NAP)
3:00 Sedgefield – College City
3:50 Ripon – Lafontaine Blue

Lays
Laying system current paper bank: £100.00
Lays for the day, in order of race time:-

2:50 Ripon – Winning Spirit
3:30 Sedgefield – Rich Song
4:20 Ripon – Princess Ileana

TTFN – Have fun and a profitable day to you!

Testing New Systems

Won’t be actively betting for a few days. The bank has taken a beating thanks to me testing some theories on Exchange Poker (and being wrong!), so I’ll build it up slowly in the background and be paper testing a new idea I’ve been playing with.

The system requires one winner from three selections per day to make the 10% target profit. Target 10% at whatever odds on the first selection. If it loses, target 10% + the bet from selection one on selection two. If that loses, target 10% + the two bets on selection three. The staking plan isn’t new or revolutionary, but hopefully the key is in the way in which the horses are being picked…

Bank Holiday Monday’s selections for this would be…

2:15 Epsom – Loch Tay
2:30 Chepstow – Snake’s Head
4:20 Warwick – Beverley Hill Billy

With one reserve in case of a non-runner…
5:35 Newcastle – Queen Cobra

TESTING BANK starts at £100 with a target of £110.

Also playing about with creating a short-odds laying system, the result of which has given me PRIMONDO in the 4:55 at Warwick as my lay of the day.
Have fun y’all…

Selections for Saturday, August 26th

1:45 Newmarket – We’ll Come – Win and Place
2:00 Goodwood – Only Hope – Win and Place
2:05 Sandown – Wasseema – Win and Place
2:30 Goodwood – Logsdail – Win and Place
2:30 Goodwood – True Night – Place
2:35 Sandown – Danebury Hill – Win and Place
2:45 Chester – Narrjoo – Win and Place
2:50 Newmarket – Tawaasol – Win
3:05 Goodwood – Idle Power – Win and Place
3:10 Sandown – Kruggerand – Win and Place
5:10 Chester – Aahgowangowan – Win and Place

The system throws up hardly anything for days, then a shedload…

Selections for Friday, August 25th

The profit train rolls on towards the destination…this morning’s Exchange Poker session lasted just 3 hands, and garnered me a 10.18% profit, meaning that my bank is now at £332.86.

So, since the challenge was set back to the original system (plus Exchange Poker) and we started from £100 on August 21st, we’re almost halfway home. £170 more sees the challenge complete, and the schedule says that 10% per day on Poker and 10% on racing would see that happen on Sunday 27th. Then, a withdrawl of £300 will start us off on the next challenge…which is to be decided.

Today’s Selections
2:00 Sandown: Black Moma – Win/Place
2:20 Chester: Thumper’s Dream – Win/Place
2:35 Sandown: Forest Dane – Place
2:55 Chester: Scrummage – Place – CHANGED – Now KENMORE Win/Place
3:30 Chester: Voodoo Moon – Win/Place
3:55 Newmarket: Zennerman – Win/Place
4:05 Chester: Pretty Majestic – Win/Place

Mrs Retro chooses a win for Black Moma at 2pm, Win/Place on Forest Dane and a place for Further Outlook, both at 2:35.

Starting: £366.89
Target: £403.58

Good luck today!

(Amended figures as I played 4 hands of Exchange Poker during my lunch break at work. Profit on Exchange Poker is 21.45% for the day.)

Selections for Thursday August 24th

Off we go again…12% profit on Exchange Poker this morning sees me up to £249 or thereabouts. Selections for today are as follows:-

1:45 York – Cockney Rebel – Win/Place
2:05 Musselbrough – Danzatrice – Win/Place
2:15 York – Scarlet Runner OR Slik Blossom – Win/Place
2:35 Musselbrough – Fun Thai – Win/Place
3:45 Musselbrough – Fremen – Win
4:10 Stratford – Il Penseroso – Win
4:45 Stratford – La Dolfina – Win
5:10 York – Trick or Treat – Win/Place
5:15 Stratford – Rookery Lad – Place

Good luck y’all!

Exchange Poker Goodness

Every day this week, I’ve been trying to make a 10% profit from Exchange Poker, then heading to the track to make a 10% profit on racing. I can easily make 10% on poker by laying unlikely hands and greening up on the flop.

Today however, something caught my eye. Hand 4 had lost 10 times in a row, and the hands winning were all incredibly weak, and incredibly short on price. Pocket fives coming in to 1.2 with 5 unpaired overcards in other hands on the turn etc.

Anyway, Hands 1 and 3 are unable to win at this stage.

Hand 2 is Jack-Two offsuit
Hand 4 is Ace-Jack offsuit

The board shows 22A4

Hand 2 is 1.06 to win. I have this bizarre feeling that one of the other two Aces in the deck will come out, giving hand 4 the win – so, I lay the 1.06 for a £5.00 liability (the change in my account).

River card.

ACE.

33% profit on the day for my bank. Even if I hit my stop loss on racing, I’ll be up 7%. Can’t say fairer than that…

Selections for Wednesday, August 23rd

The big one is at 2:50 – The Totesport Ebor – and there are sure to be some NIIIICE prices going around. Greenwich Meantime will probably start as favourite, but the likes of Foxhaven and Young Mick are at huge prices compared to their chance of leading them home. The system is having trouble finding bets today – again, not enough distance between the pack to find a clear bet, but I’ve got a few from Hamilton.

I’ll also be playing FIVE horses in the Ebor – note, that these are not from the system, rather personal choices after checking out form, ratings, ability and the usual. So, off we go…

System Bets
2:00 Hamilton – Baylaw Star – Win&Place
3:10 Hamilton – Rancho Cucamonga – Place
4:20 Hamilton – Freeloader – Win&Place
4:55 Hamilton – Musical Magic – Win & Place

Personal Bets
2:50 York – Public Forum – Win&Place
2:50 York – Consular – Win&Place
2:50 York – Red Lancer – Win&Place – BIG fancy for this.
2:50 York – Foxhaven – Win&Place
2:50 York – River Alhaarth – Win&Place – Had a word for this from a good source.

Had a VERY strong word for Short Skirt in the 3:25…so win and place on that.
So, a TEN POINT BET in the Ebor. BRING IT ON!

Big outsider of the day for me is Hearthstead Wings in the Ebor. Has the best draw of the lot, has won one and been in the frame in two of the last three, won on the going and the distance without much trouble – Oh, and is sitting at 100-1 on Betfair, or 12.5 the place. I won’t back it, but if it comes in – you know where you can find me…in the pub kicking myself up the arse.

Good luck today!